中泰期货晨会纪要-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The overall ratings for different industries are presented in a table, with some commodities rated as bearish, some neutral, and some bullish. For example, RUS, palm oil, and sugar are rated as bearish, while rebar, manganese silicon, and eggs are rated as bullish [7]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analyses of various industries, including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trading strategies, market outlooks, and factors affecting price fluctuations for each sector [12][15][21]. - In the macro - finance sector, stock index futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term and suitable for long - term buying at lows, while treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term and maintain a steep curve strategy in the medium - term [12][13]. - For black commodities, steel and ore prices are expected to have limited fluctuations and remain in a medium - term oscillatory range, and coal and coke prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short - term [15][17]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different outlooks. For example, aluminum is expected to oscillate and decline at high levels in the short - term, while zinc is expected to weaken in an oscillatory manner [21][24]. - Agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and eggs have their own supply - demand situations and price trends. Cotton may face downward pressure in the long - term, sugar is expected to be suppressed by increasing supply, and eggs have high inventory and complex price trends [28][32][35]. - Energy chemicals, including crude oil, fuel oil, and plastics, are affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and cost. Crude oil may enter a supply - surplus pattern and is recommended to be shorted at highs [43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, narrowing by 2.8 percentage points from June. High - tech manufacturing profits turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, accelerating the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.9 percentage points [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated measures to promote service exports [9]. - Shanghai released an implementation plan for urban village renovation, and Guangzhou held a work promotion meeting for urban renewal [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guidance on promoting the satellite communication industry, aiming to have over ten million satellite communication users by 2030 [9]. - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 and an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories by the end of 2026. Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [10]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to be volatile in the short - term and consider long - term buying at lows. A - share indices fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 1.76%. The market turnover was high, and after the stock market decline, the possibility of continuous sharp decline is limited [12]. Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to be volatile in the short - term and maintain a steep curve strategy in the medium - term. The capital market tightened slightly, and the stock market decline boosted the bond market, but the seesaw effect weakened [13]. Black Commodities Overall Black Market - The impact of the "anti - involution" policy is weakening, and downstream steel demand remains weak. The market is expected to be oscillatory in the medium - term, with seasonal demand expected to improve. Supply is expected to remain strong, and the cost and profit situation affects the price valuation [15]. Steel and Ore - Steel spot prices are weak, and the iron ore spot market is oscillatory. The overall steel and ore prices are expected to have limited fluctuations and remain in an oscillatory range [15][17]. Coal and Coke - Coal and coke prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short - term. Supply may face short - term constraints, and demand remains high but may decline. The market is affected by production restrictions and policy expectations [17]. Ferroalloys - Affected by the stock market, ferroalloys have no independent short - term market. Supply may increase until the end of September, and the recommended strategy is to short at high prices [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted at high prices, and glass is recommended to be observed. Soda ash supply may increase in the future, while glass supply may slightly increase, and demand has different characteristics [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate and decline at high levels in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see. Alumina can be considered for short - term basis trading and shorted at high prices in the medium - term [21]. Zinc - Social zinc inventory is increasing, and zinc prices are expected to weaken in an oscillatory manner due to increased supply and weak demand [24]. Lithium Carbonate - After the price returns to a reasonable level, it will mainly oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [25]. Industrial Silicon - The downward adjustment space is limited, and it will oscillate. The复产 progress of leading factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction [26]. Polysilicon - Policy progress dominates price fluctuations, and the market is expected to oscillate widely. There is a contradiction between policy expectations and supply surplus [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The long - term strategy is to short at high prices due to weak downstream demand and future production increase pressure [28]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are restricted by increasing processed sugar supply, and the international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [32]. Eggs - Futures trading is intense, and the short - term price reversal probability is low. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term [35]. Apples - The strategy is to conduct long - short arbitrage with light positions [37]. Corn - It is recommended to short the 01 contract or conduct 11 - 1 long - short arbitrage [38]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see [39]. Pigs - Short the near - term contracts at high prices and buy the 01 contract at low prices [40]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The market is expected to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short at highs. Attention should be paid to factors such as US - Russia negotiations and OPEC+ quota adjustments [43]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to whether the oil price reflects supply - demand surplus or geopolitical and macro factors [44]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to high supply pressure [45]. Rubber - There is no obvious short - term fundamental contradiction, and attention can be paid to buying opportunities at lows [47]. Methanol - Due to port inventory accumulation, methanol prices are expected to continue to weaken in an oscillatory manner [48]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is strong, and it is advisable to hold a long - term bullish view after the basis is appropriate [49]. Asphalt - It will follow the oil price, and its own fundamentals are stable [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to weakening market sentiment [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It is expected to have limited upward space in the long - term and maintain a bearish view [53]. Pulp - It is advisable to observe port de - stocking and demand changes, and consider selling put options for procurement at lows [54]. Logs - The fundamentals are oscillatory, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [55]. Urea - The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to export details [55]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are improving, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [56].