五矿期货农产品早报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs further examination. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to go long at low costs and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at high levels [3][5]. - The center of the oil market is supported, and palm oil is expected to be bullish in the range before the inventory is fully accumulated and the demand feedback is negative [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures is likely to continue to decline, while the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures may have upward momentum in the short term [12][15]. - The egg market's negative cycle of oversupply remains unbroken, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [19]. - The pig market is considered in a range, with more attention paid to trading opportunities after extreme sentiment, and the reverse spread strategy for far - month contracts continues [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell slightly, and the domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.51 days. Last week, the domestic soybean inventory decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level [3]. - Weather: The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have less rainfall in the next week, and it has been dry in August, with rainfall forecast to resume in early September [3]. - Production: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - Trading Strategy: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal spot will start to reduce inventory in September, supporting the oil mill's profit margins. It is recommended to go long at low costs in the cost range of soybean meal [5]. Oils - Important Information: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, and the production first increased and then decreased. In August, China's soybean imports and oil mill crushings were still high, and the rapeseed imports decreased. At night on Wednesday, the three major domestic oils oscillated weakly [7]. - Trading Strategy: The US biodiesel policy draft may suppress soybean oil exports. The palm oil market is expected to be bullish in the range before the inventory is fully accumulated and the demand feedback is negative [9]. Sugar - Key Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be reduced to 44.5 million tons [11]. - Trading Strategy: The possibility of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Key Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 54% [14]. - Trading Strategy: Considering the approaching consumption season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum [15]. Eggs - Spot Information: Most egg prices in the country rose, with some falling. The supply is stabilizing, and the downstream digestion speed is slowing down. Today's egg prices are expected to be stable, with individual slight adjustments [17][18]. - Trading Strategy: The egg market's oversupply cycle remains unbroken. It is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [19]. Pigs - Spot Information: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly fell, with some rising locally. It is expected that pig prices in the north may rise slightly, and those in the south may fall slightly or remain stable today [21]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term logic is to release pressure due to oversupply. The market is considered in a range, and the reverse spread strategy for far - month contracts continues [22].