宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - All three varieties (soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil) are expected to be "weakly volatile" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, according to the reference views [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Price Movement Outlook: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - Core Logic: The change in Sino - US trade relations affects US soybean export prospects. The pattern of weak reality and strong expectation in the domestic market remains unchanged. Short - term soybean futures prices are highly repetitive at high levels. As market sentiment weakens again, both domestic and foreign soybean futures prices decline, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures prices. Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand also play roles [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - Price Movement Outlook: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][8]. - Core Logic: The soybean oil market focuses on raw material soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy expectations, and the resolution of domestic inventory pressure. Affected by the weakening of raw material soybean prices, the cost support for soybean oil futures prices weakens. US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory are also influencing factors [6][7][8]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Movement Outlook: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - Core Logic: International oil price fluctuations have a continuous spill - over effect on the palm oil market. As the most energy - related oil variety, palm oil futures prices are significantly affected. Although the positive trend of the palm oil industry chain remains unchanged, short - term capital outflows intensify price fluctuations. Factors such as biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand also impact the price [7][8].