国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250828

Report Overview - Date: August 28, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Palm Oil: No new fundamental drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - Soybean Oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, with prices in a sideways consolidation [2][4] - Soybean Meal: Slight decline in US soybeans, technical rebound in Dalian soybean meal [2][16] - Soybean: Trading sideways [2][18] - Corn: Moving sideways [2][20] - Sugar: Trading within a range [2][24] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the situation of new crops and the impact of external market sentiment [2][28] - Eggs: Weak sentiment in the distant end [2][35] - Hogs: Spot performance falls short of expectations, sell on rallies [2][37] - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][42] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 9,426 yuan/ton with a 0.02% increase, and night - closing price was 9,518 yuan/ton with a 0.98% increase. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,464 yuan/ton with a 0.84% decrease, and night - closing price was 8,394 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [4] - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The palm oil industry in Malaysia called on the government to reinvest the windfall profit levy (WPL) revenue and adjust the WPL threshold [5][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3045 yuan/ton with a 1.68% decrease, and night - closing price was 3063 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase. DCE soybean 2511's daily - closing price was 3935 yuan/ton with a 1.33% decrease, and night - closing price was 3940 yuan/ton with a 0.40% decrease [17] - Macro and Industry News: On August 27, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to expected high yields in the US this fall, but the optimistic sentiment of China - US trade negotiations restricted the decline [19] Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2509 was 2,227 yuan/ton with a 0.95% increase during the day and 2,249 yuan/ton with a 0.99% increase at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,164 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase during the day and 2,183 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase at night [21] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port - collection prices remained stable, while North China's corn prices declined. Imported grains such as sorghum and barley also had price quotes [22] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 16.44 cents/pound with a 0.02 increase. The mainstream spot price was 5960 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [24] - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened. CAOC estimated China's sugar production, consumption, and imports for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [24][25] Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601's daily - closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease, and night - closing price was 14095 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [28] - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot market was generally quiet, the cotton yarn market's trading was average, and ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, waiting for weekly export data [29][30] Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg 2509's closing price was 2,896 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.62% decrease, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.47% decrease [35] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35] Hogs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 13780 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13450 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 14940 yuan/ton [38] - Market Logic: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, demand growth was limited, and the spot performance was disappointing. It is recommended to sell on rallies, with a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 14000 yuan/ton for the LH2509 contract [37][40] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,900 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease. PK510's closing price was 8,042 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [42] - Spot Market: In Henan, peanut prices were stable with limited supply due to rain. New peanuts are expected to be listed in mid - to late September [43]