山金期货原油日报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 90%, with an expected cut of around 75BP this year, which is more dovish than before. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. There is a possibility of evaluating the withdrawal of the second - stage 1.66 million barrels per day production cut in December, but the September OPEC+ meeting is likely to suspend the production increase. The demand is expected to remain resilient but decline seasonally after September 1st. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices. There are also short - term impacts from changes in interest rate cut expectations and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation, as well as potential geopolitical shocks from countries like Iran and Israel [2]. - The US oil rebounded slightly, while Sc continued to decline, approaching the previous low, reflecting weak domestic supply - demand expectations. The long - term supply is expected to increase, and as it enters September, US oil demand may weaken seasonally. There are uncertainties in geopolitical situations such as Iran's return to the Iran nuclear deal, the impact of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Technically, the US oil faces resistance at $65 per barrel, and the oil price may oscillate in the range of [63, 65]. A mid - term strategy of selling high is recommended, and aggressive traders can try short - term shorting with stop - loss [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - Futures Prices: On August 27th, Sc was at 479.70 yuan/barrel, down 3.31% from the previous day; WTI was at $63.86 per barrel, up 0.87%; Brent was at $67.80 per barrel, up 0.82%. The Sc - WTI spread was $3.60, down 43.55%; the Sc - Brent spread was - $0.34, down 113.91%; the Brent - WTI spread was $3.94, up 61.56% [2]. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $70.60 per barrel, up 0.68%; Brent DTD was at $71.18 per barrel, up 2.39%; Oman was at $71.22 per barrel, up 1.01%; Dubai was at $71.15 per barrel, up 1.05%; ESPO was at $65.06 per barrel, up 1.43% [2]. - Product Spot Prices: Diesel in East China was at 6718.18 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; gasoline in East China was at 7779.91 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 14.004965, up 3.37%; the ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 16.218280, up 3.32% [2]. 3.2 Inventory Data - Sc Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts were 5.721 million barrels, up 20.01% [2]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: It was 404.2 million barrels, up 0.19% [2]. - EIA US Weekly Data (as of August 22nd): Commercial crude oil was 418.29 million barrels, down 0.57%; Cushing crude oil was 22.63 million barrels, down 3.57%; gasoline was 222.33 million barrels, down 0.55%; distillates were 114.24 million barrels, down 1.54% [2]. 3.3 CFTC Position Data (Weekly) - Non - commercial net positions were 120,200 contracts, up 2.97%; commercial net positions were - 140,600 contracts, down 1.22%; non - report net positions were 20,300 contracts, down 20.37% [2]. 3.4 Industry News - Russia announced a new temporary ban on gasoline exports from September 1st to September 30th, applicable to all exporters. The restriction on gasoline producers will be lifted from October 1st, aiming to stabilize the domestic fuel market [3]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels in the week ending August 22nd, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels [5]. - European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran this Thursday, and the procedure takes 30 days to complete [5]. - In the week ending August 24th, Russia's weekly crude oil shipments from ports decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to a four - week low of 2.72 million barrels per day, mainly due to the decline in the loading volume at the Ust - Luga port in the Baltic Sea [5]. - On August 26th, an explosion occurred on the oil pipeline connecting Ryazan and Moscow in Russia, and the transportation of oil products to Moscow via this pipeline has been indefinitely suspended [6]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 11.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 88.7%. In October, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 5.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45.5% [7]. - South Korea may close small and independent naphtha cracking units and merge some factories as part of the reform of the oversupplied petrochemical industry, which may reduce the demand for naphtha imports [8].