Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends, including short - term oscillations, short - term weakening, and short - term rebounds, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market expectations [1][3][4]. - The stock market has potential for continuous growth in the second half of the year, while long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively due to factors like liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - Coking Coal: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, with a 0.47% week - on - week increase. The daily output of clean coal was 260,000 tons, up 300 tons week - on - week, and the inventory was 2.895 million tons, down 54,000 tons week - on - week. Due to the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of coke price increases, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - Silicon Iron: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 36.52%, with a 0.34% week - on - week increase. The daily output was 16,205 tons, up 0.5% week - on - week. The cost side is supported, but the downstream demand is expected to decline during the military parade, and the supply is increasing. The short - term price decline is limited, but the medium - to - long - term price will tend to decline [3]. Energy Products - Crude Oil: In the week ending August 22, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 1.3439 million barrels per day. The weekly crude oil shipments from Russian ports decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day. The inventory decline was slightly lower than market expectations. The short - term trend is oscillating weakly [1]. Metal Products - Rebar: On August 27, the domestic steel market declined weakly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 20 yuan to 3,010 yuan per ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,334 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. Supply is expected to shrink due to environmental protection restrictions, and demand is currently weak but expected to improve in September. The steel price will oscillate in the short term [3]. - Silver: The remarks from the New York Fed President opened up the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The overnight dollar decline boosted precious metals, and silver is still oscillating upward [7]. - Gold: The influence on the Fed's independence and the market's concern about stagflation in the U.S. are positive for gold. The short - term rebound is due to the expectation of an interest rate cut, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The predicted export volume of Brazilian soybeans from August 24 to 30 is 1.6307 million tons, down from 1.8459 million tons last week. The domestic soybean price is currently fluctuating within a narrow range. With the upcoming increase in new soybean supply and limited demand, the domestic soybean price will remain weakly stable in the short term [6]. - Palm Oil: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 was 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month. The financial market weakness and the decline in crude oil prices are suppressing the palm oil price. The short - term trend is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Rubber: The raw material prices in Thailand are rising steadily. The export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber from Vietnam in the first seven months decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but the export volume to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The domestic natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons, a 1.1% decline. The short - term adjustment is followed by a medium - term upward - oscillating trend [4]. - Pig: On August 27, the national average price of pork in agricultural product wholesale markets decreased by 0.4%. The national pig price has stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term market is expected to have a small - scale rebound, but the amplitude is limited. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and pig farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. Chemical Products - Methanol: The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 22 yuan to 2,250 yuan per ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate increased by 1.36% to 83.76%. The port inventory increased, and the expected import volume in September remains high. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2,395 yuan. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8][9]. - Soda Ash: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash nationwide is 1,294 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently. The weekly output increased by 1.33%, and the inventory increased by 0.9%. The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is oscillating weakly. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1,305 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - Polypropylene: The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene decreased by 16 yuan to 6,994 yuan per ton. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.2%. The commercial inventory decreased, but it is still higher than the same period in the previous two years. The market price is oscillating weakly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 7,040 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [10]. Others - Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds: In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months. The profit of high - tech manufacturing increased significantly. The stock market has potential for continuous growth, and long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively. It is recommended to short long - term bonds at key resistance levels [8]. - Bottle Chips: In 2025, the bottle chip capacity is still growing, with an expected growth rate of about 9.1%. The current production is stable, and the downstream industries have stable or slightly increasing operating rates. The market is in the peak consumption season for soft drinks, and with the reduction in production by major manufacturers, the inventory is slowly decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate upward [5].
今日早评-20250828
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-28 01:45