中原期货晨会纪要-20250828

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The commodity market has mixed price movements, and the stock market experiences a significant decline on August 27. The economic situation is influenced by multiple factors, including global events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries [4][18]. - In the commodity market, some products like natural rubber and asphalt have price increases, while others such as glass and styrene have price drops. In the stock market, A - share indexes fall sharply, with most industry sectors in the red [4][18]. - For different commodities, specific supply - demand factors affect their prices. For example, in the agricultural products sector, the supply pressure of sugar is increasing, while the demand for some products like eggs is expected to drive a slight price increase [12]. - In the stock market, although the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index may slow down the rising pace, it is considered beneficial in the long - term. The market may need a significant shock to digest floating profit chips, and investors are advised to take advantage of low - buying opportunities [20][21]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemical Industry - Price Changes: On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, natural rubber rose by 0.508% to 15,840.00, 20 - number rubber rose by 0.396% to 12,665.00, and asphalt rose by 0.605% to 3,492.00. While plastics, polypropylene PP, PTA, etc., had price drops, with PVC having the largest decline of 0.606% to 4,919.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - International Events: The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1; the 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services will be held in Beijing from September 10 to 14 [7]. - Economic Data: In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months; the new kinetic energy index of China's economic development in 2024 increased by 14.2% year - on - year [7]. - Policy Announcements: Jilin Province will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists' shopping from September 1, 2025; the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month [7][8]. - Industry Data: From August 1 - 24, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 72.7 million units, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase; the global economic and trade friction index in June was 92, showing a缓和 trend [8]. - Market Forecast: Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, and the global oil inventory to increase by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [9]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: The sugar price shows a downward trend. The supply pressure is high, and the operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, paying attention to the support level of 5600 yuan [12]. - Corn: The corn price is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the strategy is to maintain a bearish view, focusing on the support level of 2150 yuan [12]. - Pig: The national pig price is weakly falling. The supply - demand game continues, and the futures market is bearish [12]. - Egg: The egg price is expected to rise slightly, mainly driven by demand. The futures market suggests short - selling on rebounds and reverse spreads between months [12]. - Cotton: The ICE US cotton futures are falling. The fundamentals have no major changes. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips in the short - term [14]. 3.3.2 Energy Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is affected by enterprise maintenance, and the demand is weak. The price is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level of 1720 - 1730 yuan/ton and the Indian tender on September 2 [13]. - Caustic Soda: As the peak consumption season approaches, the caustic soda 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, and a bullish approach on dips is recommended [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The downstream inquiry is not significantly improved, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: For copper, due to market uncertainties, a bullish approach is recommended if the price breaks through the oscillation range. For aluminum, the price is expected to remain high as domestic consumption improves and inventory is at a low level [16]. - Alumina: The alumina market shows a north - south differentiation. The 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [16]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The steel market has a wait - and - see atmosphere. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the steel price decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to actual production cuts and macro - sentiment changes [16]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market is under pressure. The short - term is in a wide - range oscillation, and industrial hedging and speculation should be cautious [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then try to go long lightly, paying attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [18]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock Index Options: On August 27, A - share indexes fall sharply. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options change, and the implied volatility decreases for some options. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the index trend [18]. - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index adjusts, and other indexes are likely to follow. The market may need a shock to digest floating profit chips. Investors are advised to take advantage of low - buying opportunities [20][21].