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铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250828
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-28 01:39
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro: Overseas, the US dollar index rose and then fell, the 10Y US Treasury yield declined, US stocks opened lower and closed higher, gold and oil prices closed up, and copper prices weakened. Domestically, A - shares fell on high - volume trading, and the stock market's risk may be approaching its peak. The bond market is expected to start to recover [2]. - Precious Metals: The independence of the Fed is under threat, increasing the market's risk appetite and boosting precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - Copper: LME copper inventories increased, and copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to factors such as policy independence concerns, economic situation, and supply - demand fundamentals [4][5][6]. - Aluminum: The market is waiting for US economic data and concerned about the Fed's independence. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as downstream replenishment意愿 decreases [7]. - Alumina: Supply pressure is increasing, and alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - Zinc: Market risk aversion has increased, and zinc prices have moved down. Supply pressure will be alleviated, but consumption has not improved significantly, and zinc prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment space [9]. - Lead: Supply pressure is expected to decrease, but consumption in the peak season has not materialized, so the upward space for lead prices is limited [10][11]. - Tin: The low inventory of LME tin and slow supply recovery support prices, but limited capital enthusiasm restricts the upward height of tin prices [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: There are both long and short factors, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate [13]. - Steel (Screw and Coil): Demand is in the off - season, and supply is reduced. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak [14]. - Iron Ore: Demand is decreasing due to steel mill maintenance, and supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile [15]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and there are positive expectations for the China - US agricultural product agreement. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17]. - Palm Oil: There is limited driving force in the market, and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and adjust [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - Copper: SHFE copper closed at 79190 yuan/ton with no change; LME copper closed at 9774 dollars/ton, down 0.74% [19]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum closed at 20810 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME aluminum closed at 2604 dollars/ton, down 1.31% [19]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina closed at 3046 yuan/ton, down 2.65% [8]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc closed at 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME zinc closed at 2764 dollars/ton, down 1.53% [19]. - Lead: SHFE lead closed at 16890 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; LME lead closed at 1986 dollars/ton, down 0.08% [19]. - Tin: SHFE tin closed at 271790 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; LME tin closed at 34510 dollars/ton, up 1.11% [19]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to 3451.80 dollars/ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to 38.69 dollars/ounce [3]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - Copper: On August 27, SHFE copper was unchanged at 79190 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 73 dollars to 9773.5 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1100 tons to 156100 tons [21]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel rose 1390 yuan to 121760 yuan/ton, LME nickel fell 90 dollars to 15190 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 72 tons to 209220 tons [21]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc rose 40 yuan to 22310 yuan/ton, LME zinc fell 43 dollars to 2764 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 5500 tons to 60025 tons [23]. - Lead: SHFE lead fell 40 yuan to 16890 yuan/ton, LME lead fell 1.5 dollars to 1985.5 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 4075 tons to 267475 tons [23]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum rose 90 yuan to 20760 yuan/ton, LME aluminum fell 34.5 dollars to 2604 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 3175 tons to 481250 tons [23]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina fell 23 yuan to 3046 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of alumina fell 9 yuan to 3237 yuan/ton [23]. - Tin: SHFE tin rose 2030 yuan to 271790 yuan/ton, LME tin rose 380 dollars to 34510 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 145 tons to 1925 tons [23]. - Precious Metals: There was little change in the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver on August 27 compared with August 26 [23].