国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, individual commodity trends and strategies are given: - Positive Outlook: Gold, Silver, Tin, PTA, Propylene, LPG [2][22][58] - Neutral Outlook: Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Logs, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Paper Pulp, Glass, Soda Ash, PVC, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Pure Benzene, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Peanut [2][12][15][19] - Negative Outlook: Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Line), Rubber Plate Printing Paper, Palm Oil, Eggs, Live Pigs [2][54][55][59] 2. Core Views - The report provides daily outlooks and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is analyzed based on its fundamentals, macro - economic news, and market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish remarks influenced the market. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook. The price shows an upward trend in the short - term [2][5][10]. - Silver: It is expected to reach a previous high. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a positive outlook [2][6][10]. Base Metals - Copper: Lacks driving forces, and the price will fluctuate. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Macro - economic factors and new resource discoveries may affect the supply - demand balance [12][14]. - Zinc: Shows a weakening and fluctuating trend. The trend strength is 0, with a neutral outlook. Inventory changes and macro - economic news are key factors [15][18]. - Lead: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 0, with a neutral outlook. Inventory data and macro - economic policies are important [19][20]. - Tin: Will fluctuate within a range. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook. Market sentiment and macro - economic news are influential [22][25]. - Aluminum: Will fluctuate within a range. Alumina will experience a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, - 1 for alumina, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [26][28]. - Nickel: Will run in a narrow - range fluctuation. Stainless steel will have a short - term low - level fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [29][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Supply - side disturbances are frequent, and the price will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a negative outlook [35][38]. - Industrial Silicon: Is in a weak - fluctuation pattern. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a negative outlook [39][42]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][42]. - Iron Ore: Will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a negative outlook [43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [49][51]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [52][53]. - Log: Will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [54][57]. - Para - Xylene: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a positive spread strategy. PTA is driven by the seasonal demand peak and is in a relatively strong fluctuation market. MEG has a positive spread strategy for the monthly difference and a high - level single - side fluctuation market [58]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a correction. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral - to - negative outlook [61]. - Soybean Oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter is suspended, and the price is in a consolidation phase. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [61]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans slightly decline, and domestic soybean meal has a technical rebound [64]. - Soybean: Will fluctuate. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [64]. - Corn: Will fluctuate. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [66]. - Sugar: Will have a range - bound consolidation. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [67]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the new crop situation and external market sentiment. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [68]. - Egg: The sentiment in the distant future is weak. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a negative outlook [70]. - Live Pig: Spot performance is lower than expected, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a negative outlook [71]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [72].