国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250828

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Gold: The dovish stance of Powell at the JH meeting has influenced the market. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2][9]. - Silver: Expected to reach the previous high. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a positive trend [2][9]. - Copper: Lacks driving forces, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][13]. - Zinc: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral stance [2][17]. - Lead: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][19]. - Tin: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a relatively positive trend [2][24]. - Aluminum: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Alumina is expected to decline slightly, with a trend strength of -1. Casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Nickel: Expected to trade within a narrow range. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral stance. Stainless steel is expected to experience short - term low - level fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, the prices of沪金2510, 黄金T + D, and Comex黄金2510 all increased. The ETF持仓 of SPDR黄金ETF increased by 3. For silver, the price of沪银2510 decreased slightly. The SLV白银ETF持仓 remained unchanged [5]. - News: Nvidia's revenue outlook raised concerns about AI spending. The New York Fed President hinted at a possible interest rate adjustment in September. The EU plans to cut US tariffs. French bond risk premiums rose. Meituan's Q2 adjusted net profit dropped sharply [7][10][23]. Copper - Fundamentals: The price of沪铜主力合约 remained flat during the day and decreased slightly at night. The伦铜3M电子盘 price decreased. The trading volume of沪铜主力合约 decreased, while that of伦铜3M电子盘 increased. The inventory of沪铜 decreased, and that of伦铜 increased [11]. - News: Fed policy easing expectations led to a decline in US Treasury yields. China's industrial profits in July showed a narrowing decline. A new high - grade copper/gold resource was discovered in Australia. Codelco lowered its copper output target [11][13]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The price of沪锌主力合约 increased slightly, and the伦锌3M电子盘 price also rose slightly. The trading volume of沪锌主力合约 increased, while that of伦锌 decreased. The inventory of沪锌 and伦锌 both decreased [14]. - News: The Fed Chair candidate selection process is ongoing. The US Congress will vote on the Fed's independence [15]. Lead - Fundamentals: The price of沪铅主力合约 decreased slightly, and the伦铅3M电子盘 price also declined. The trading volume of沪铅 and伦铅 both increased. The inventory of沪铅 increased slightly, while that of伦铅 decreased [18]. - News: Fed policy easing expectations led to a decline in US Treasury yields. China's industrial profits in July showed a narrowing decline [19]. Tin - Fundamentals: The price of沪锡主力合约 increased. The伦锡3M电子盘 price also rose. The trading volume of沪锡 increased significantly. The inventory of沪锡 and伦锡 both increased slightly. The spot price of SMM 1锡锭 decreased [21][22]. - News: Similar to gold and silver, including Nvidia's revenue outlook, Fed rate adjustment hints, EU tariff plans, French bond issues, and Meituan's profit decline [21][23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The price of沪铝主力合约 decreased slightly. The氧化铝主力合约 price decreased. The铝合金主力合约 price increased slightly. The inventory of LME铝 increased slightly, and the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged [25]. - News: The EU plans to cut US tariffs to meet Trump's requirements [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The price of沪镍主力合约 increased slightly. The不锈钢主力合约 price also rose slightly. The trading volume of沪镍 and不锈钢 both increased. The price of 1进口镍 increased [28]. - News: Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines stopped due to losses [28][30][31].