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镍与不锈钢日评:宏观反复,驱动不足-20250828
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-28 02:14

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250828: Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Insufficient Drivers [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations fluctuating. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. - For stainless steel, the current macro - sentiment has a large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for prices to return to fundamentals and there is cost support. Prices are expected to follow macro - fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2] Summary by Relevant Data Nickel Futures and Spot Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel: On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of the active nickel futures contract was 196,852 lots (+108,077), and the open interest was 98,903 lots (-10,364). The basis (SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - active nickel futures contract closing price) was 1,390 yuan/ton (+1,080) [2]. - LME Nickel: On August 27, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month nickel (electronic trading) was 15,131 dollars/ton (-154), and the trading volume was 6,835 lots (-1,130) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Data - Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures: On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract was 128,526 lots (+25,799), and the open interest was 128,304 lots (-5,355). The basis (304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price - active stainless - steel futures contract closing price) was 860 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Stainless Steel Spot: The 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory last week was 626,000 tons (+8,500) [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Nickel Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat last week, with an increase in nickel ore arrivals at ports and inventory accumulation. In August, domestic nickel - iron production decreased while Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventory accumulated. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [2]. - Nickel Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel mills increased production, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [2]. - Stainless Steel Supply: Stainless - steel production increased in August [2]. - Stainless Steel Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Inventory Analysis - Nickel Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week [2].