KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-28 02:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its liability side in Q2, with further allocation towards equity investments [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 reached 40.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to Q1 [4] - The company plans a mid-term dividend of 6.73 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.0% and accounting for 37% of the total dividends for 2024 [4] - The forecast for new business value (NBV) is expected to grow by 15.0%, 10.0%, and 10.0% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total premium income for H1 2025 was 525.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with new single premium income at 161.2 billion yuan, up 0.6% [5] - The NBV reached 28.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, significantly better than the 4.5% growth in Q1 [5] - The company's investment assets totaled 7.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8% from the end of 2024 and 17.1% year-on-year [6] - The net investment income for H1 2025 was 96.1 billion yuan, with a net investment yield of 2.78%, down 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [6] Valuation Metrics - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 113.78 billion yuan, with an expected year-on-year growth of 6.4% [7] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is projected to be 1.98, decreasing to 1.41 by 2027 [7] - The embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from 1.53 trillion yuan in 2025 to 1.83 trillion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% [7]