Dongxing Securities·2025-08-28 02:10Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the coal sector, maintained for the next 3-6 months [5]. Core Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices and Australian coal prices have continued to rise month-on-month, while South African and European coal prices have decreased [3][15]. - In July, the monthly production of raw coal decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with significant declines in the production from key state-owned coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [2][17]. - The total coal inventory at the three major ports has continued to decline month-on-month, while the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has increased [2][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of August 22, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 702.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 63 CNY/ton, or 9.86% month-on-month [9][10]. - The price of thermal coal from Inner Mongolia and Shanxi also saw month-on-month increases [9][10]. 2. Production - In July, the monthly production of raw coal was 38,098.70 million tons, a decrease of 4,008.7 million tons, or 9.52% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 937.9 million tons, or 2.40% [17]. - Key state-owned coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi reported mixed results, with Shanxi and Inner Mongolia showing declines while Shaanxi saw a slight increase [19]. 3. Inventory - As of August 22, the total coal inventory at the three major ports was 12,344,000 tons, a decrease of 988,000 tons, or 7.41% month-on-month, but an increase of 796,000 tons, or 6.89% year-on-year [28]. - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 940,400 tons, an increase of 58,200 tons, or 6.60% month-on-month [36]. 4. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have continued to rise, with the CBCFI from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai reporting 31.30 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 10.21% [3][43]. - International shipping costs have also increased, with the coal shipping cost from Newcastle, Australia to China at 15.60 USD/ton, a rise of 10.64% month-on-month [3][43].