国储拍卖市场下跌，蛋白粕内盘持续弱于外盘

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium term [5] - Protein meal: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas, with domestic spot stronger than the futures [1][6][7] - Corn and starch: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; there is still a downward expectation during the new crop's concentrated listing period; in the long term, the market supports the idea of low - level absorption in the far - month [7][8] - Pigs: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] - Natural rubber: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] - Synthetic rubber: The futures may fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - Cotton: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] - Sugar: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] - Pulp: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] - Logs: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows different trends. Some products are affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies, resulting in fluctuations in prices. The report provides investment suggestions based on the analysis of various factors of different products [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Logic: Affected by factors such as US monetary policy, crude oil, and soybean weather, domestic and foreign oil and fat markets fluctuate. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and import of domestic oils also have an impact on the market [5] - Outlook: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust; in the medium term, there is a high probability of continuing to strengthen [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meal - Logic: Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans has rebounded, and Brazilian soybean exports have passed the peak. Domestically, the state reserve will auction soybeans, and the spot is stronger than the futures. The supply gap risk before December has weakened, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [1][7] - Outlook: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas. It is recommended that oil mills sell hedging on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price on dips [1][7] 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - Logic: The domestic corn price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side inventory is digested, and the demand side acceptance of high - priced grain is low. The new crop's production situation is normal, and the supply is expected to increase [7][8] - Outlook: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; in the long term, the market supports the far - month low - level absorption idea [7][8] 3.1.4 Pigs - Logic: The short - term supply is abundant, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. The demand may increase with the cooling weather, and the "anti - involution" policy is being promoted [9] - Outlook: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Logic: The price follows the financial market down. The supply and demand side is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [11] - Outlook: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The futures follow the natural rubber down. The raw material butadiene is short - term tight, providing cost support [12] - Outlook: The short - term futures may fluctuate strongly [12] 3.1.7 Cotton - Logic: The commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by upstream ginning mills is increasing [13] - Outlook: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] 3.1.8 Sugar - Logic: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Domestically, the import volume is increasing [15] - Outlook: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] 3.1.9 Pulp - Logic: The futures continue to decline, mainly due to the delivery pressure of bleached softwood kraft pulp. The supply and demand change is not significant, and the short - term weakness continues [16] - Outlook: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] 3.1.10 Logs - Logic: The 09 contract has delivery pressure, dragging down far - month contracts. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but there are still delivery product pressures [17] - Outlook: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report monitors data of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [20][38][51] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "strong", "fluctuating strongly", "fluctuating", "fluctuating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation defined as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [167] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 1.84% [169][171]