美印关税翻倍，持续关注美联储独?性忧虑

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. The dovish expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in September is likely to dominate the market. The research team is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the recovery expectation from the strong performance of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, which is favorable for the gold trend. The current weak economic reality has not reversed, and the "interest - rate cut + fundamental downturn" stagflation - like combination is more beneficial to gold. If the situation changes to an "interest - rate cut + recovery" combination, silver will benefit more [2][4][7]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - Trump's executive order to double India's tariffs to 50% took effect. Starting from 00:01 on the 27th Eastern Time, the US imposed an additional 25% ad - valorem tariff on imported Indian goods, causing many US customers to cancel orders. - The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed. Trump claims to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and if approved by the court, he will have the opportunity to control a majority of seats on the seven - member Fed Board of Governors. - Fed's Williams is quite optimistic about the economic situation, stating that the Fed may still maintain a certain degree of restrictiveness after interest - rate cuts, and each meeting is full of uncertainties [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, gold continued its moderately strong and volatile trend, while silver weakened slightly. Concerns about the Fed's independence are intensifying, and the doubling of US - India tariffs has increased the long - term stagflation expectation in the US. The late - session decline of the domestic equity market has suppressed silver prices in the short term. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP interest - rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable [2][4]. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [7]. Index Data - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity was 2211.28, down 0.50%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2459.50, down 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2244.49, down 0.59%. The precious metals index was 2729.16, with a daily decline of 0.16%, a 5 - day increase of 1.02%, a 1 - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.36% [46][48].