乌克兰袭击影响俄罗斯原油出?和炼??产，能化仍将震荡

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a "volatile" state, with some being "volatile and weak" or having specific support and resistance levels for trading[4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be volatile. The conflict in Ukraine has affected Russia's crude oil supply and refinery production, which will provide some short - term support to the oil product market. The chemical sector is influenced by raw materials, and the decline of chemical products will not exceed that of the raw material end. Asphalt has a relatively healthy pattern[2][3]. - Different products have different trends: crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the trend of crude oil; methanol, urea, etc. have their own specific trends based on supply, demand, and inventory factors[4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, and oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in refinery开工率 and the potential increase in crude oil inventory are concerns. Pay attention to short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation[10]. - Asphalt: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices are volatile and falling. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline[11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the decline of crude oil. The increase in inventory and the weakening of some demand factors lead to the decline[12]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It also follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the increase in supply, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation[13]. - Methanol: Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is volatile and weak. Although there are some policy - related boosts, the actual impact is limited. There may be opportunities to go long in the far - month contract[24][25]. - Urea: Some enterprises are under maintenance and shutdown, and the market is in weak consolidation. Wait for positive expectations, and pay attention to actual demand and the new Indian tender[25][26]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): With low inventory, price support is strong. The delay in the restart of near - ocean devices and the expected increase in terminal demand provide support[16][17][19]. - PX: Affected by cost, after the seasonal improvement in demand, the bottom support is strong. It is expected to oscillate within a range and wait for the stabilization of oil prices[14]. - PTA: Due to insufficient cost support, the polyester sales atmosphere cools down. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4700 - 5000[14]. - Short - Fiber: After the atmosphere cools down, sales decline, and prices are passively adjusted. It will oscillate in the short term and follow the trend of raw materials[20][21]. - Bottle - Chip: As the cost declines, prices are passively adjusted. It is expected to oscillate and follow the trend of raw materials[21][22]. - PP: With the weakening of macro - support, it oscillates and declines. Although there are some short - term news stimuli, the actual impact is limited[29][30]. - Propylene (PL): It follows the oscillation of PP in the short term. The processing fee is a key concern[30][34]. - Plastic: Due to the retracement of macro - sentiment, it oscillates in the short term. The supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand in the peak season[28][29]. - Pure Benzene: With the decline of commodity sentiment and high inventory in the industry chain, it returns to a weak state[14]. - Styrene: With the decline of commodity sentiment and prominent inventory pressure, it resumes falling. Although there are short - term emotional supports, the inventory pressure limits the increase[15][16]. - PVC: As market sentiment weakens, it operates weakly. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation[35]. - Caustic Soda: The spot rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for the moment. In the short term, the spot increase slows down, and in the long term, it is recommended to buy on dips[35][36]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.53, change: 0.01), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.53, change: 0.12), etc.[37]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt (basis: 49, change: 32, warehouse receipts: 71500)[38]. - Inter - variety Spreads: There are also specific values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 95, change: 44), 1 - month TA - EG (343, change: - 37)[39].