尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250828

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures. It suggests that the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of old equipment renovation, with about 20% of urea equipment over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate above 80%, leaving little idle capacity; on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Urea Price and Cost Data - Futures Prices: UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1737 yuan/ton with no change; UR05 was at 1779 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (0.11%); UR09 was at 1707 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.23%) [1]. - Spot Prices: Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 79 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. - Upstream Costs: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5225 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1740 yuan/ton, the highest was 1763 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1733 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1737 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 223,981 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, especially focusing on the 01 contract, based on the low valuation of urea and the expected upward drivers in the second half of the year [1].