甲醇日评：回归偏弱基本面-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while downstream profits in the inland areas are still poor, indicating room for improvement. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The return of domestic and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, with limited demand for further inventory building, and port inventory accumulation is likely. The upward momentum for methanol is not strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-0.96%) to 2372 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2366 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-1.10%) to 2247 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in most regions decreased, except for a 2.5 - yuan/ton (0.12%) increase in Shaanxi, and no change in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and the average price of 2180 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of Inner Mongolia's Taicang spot - MA decreased by 2 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to - 120 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: Ordos Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-1.01%) to 490 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 562.5 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 562.5 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The price in Hohhot decreased by 0.73 yuan/cubic meter (-18.53%) to 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, while the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.14 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged at 436.3 yuan/ton and - 462 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Methanol Downstream Profits: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-8.55%) to 107 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit increased by 71.5 yuan/ton (22.03%) to - 253.07 yuan/ton; Acetic acid profit increased by 27.31 yuan/ton (10.44%) to 288.79 yuan/ton; MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak oscillation, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 482,265 lots, and open interest was 754,731, with increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has reached around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating weakly, with the night - session closing at 2361. Attention should be paid to the potential impacts of the market's partial reflection of the current logic and the anti - involution expectations，[1].