中信期货晨报：国内商品期货大面积飘绿，股指板块普遍下跌-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market showed a widespread decline, with the stock index sector generally falling [1]. - Overseas, after the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [6]. - In the short term, the high - spirited market sentiment in the domestic market may continue as it approaches important events in early September. After these events, the domestic market may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamental factors may play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. The current differentiation between capital and fundamental performance may lead to increased short - term market volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short term, but there are still employment and inflation pressures in the medium term. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts is strengthening. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permits continued to decline [6]. - Domestic Macro: The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises have improved, and Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to - 1.7% from - 1.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 2.3%. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand such as consumption and investment is still at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose [6]. - Asset Views: In the short term, the domestic market may maintain high - spirited sentiment until after important events in early September. Then, the fundamental factors may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser. The current market may face increased short - term volatility [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is a rush to take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the decline in incremental funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: There is strong betting on the put side. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve is steepening. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: The real - world support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - making output [7]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has weakened, and the fundamentals have changed little. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - making production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Supply is restricted in some regions, and the eighth round of price increases is emerging. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Market sentiment has declined, and the futures price has回调 significantly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - Silicon Ferroalloy: The black chain is showing a weak trend, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - Manganese Ferroalloy: The sector is in a downward adjustment, and the futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost prices and foreign market quotes [7]. - Glass: The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to spot sales [7]. - Soda Ash: Supply has decreased in the short term, while rigid demand remains stable. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - Copper: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and the copper price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7]. - Alumina and Aluminum: The alumina price is under pressure due to weak and stable spot prices and increasing warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is oscillating at a high level with a slight increase in social inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum production resumption, extreme sector trends, macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - Zinc: The zinc price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in black - series prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - Lead: The consumption situation is still unclear, and the lead price has oscillated and declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - Stainless Steel: The nickel - iron price has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has回调. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - Tin: The raw material supply is still tight, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - Industrial Silicon: The coal price is fluctuating, and the silicon price is continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to OPEC + production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - LPG: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil price has risen and then fallen. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has followed the crude oil price and oscillated downward. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to crude oil prices [9]. - Methanol: The port inventory has accumulated, but short - term petrochemical news has provided a boost. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [9]. - Urea: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and the export - driven effect is less than expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: The low inventory level coincides with the peak - season expectation, providing strong support for the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - PX: The price is driven by emotional factors and the peak - season effect. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - PTA: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - Short - Fiber: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device production cuts [9]. - Bottle Chips: The inventory has decreased, but the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - Propylene: The price is mainly following the PP price in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9]. - PP: The price is fluctuating due to news from Zhonghan Petrochemical, but the fundamental support is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - Plastic: The plastic price has strengthened slightly due to news from the petrochemical industry. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - Styrene: The commodity market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - PVC: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the PVC price has weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and short - term long positions have taken profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. - Oils and Fats: The price is continuing to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support below. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: The domestic market has declined due to state - reserve auctions, and the domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade disputes [9]. - Corn/Starch: The decline in the spot price has slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather conditions [9]. - Hogs: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.6 Agriculture - Rubber: The rubber price has declined following the market atmosphere, with little change in its own fundamentals. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: The futures price has followed the natural rubber price and weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - Pulp: The price has continued to decline, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [9]. - Cotton: The low inventory level combined with improved demand provides strong support for the short - term cotton price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to demand and inventory [9]. - Sugar: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the sugar price has continued to decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to imports [9]. - Logs: The delivery pressure in the September contract is relatively large, dragging down the far - month contracts. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].