国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250828

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Ratings: PTA (Seasonal demand peak driving, strong - side oscillatory market); PX (Short - term oscillatory and strong - side, focus on positive spreads) [2][8] - Neutral Ratings: Rubber (Oscillatory operation); Synthetic rubber (Fundamentals are neutral, follow the macro - environment); LLDPE (Range - bound oscillation); PP (Medium - term oscillatory market); LPG (Crude oil cost rebounds); Propylene (Supply - demand tightens, spot price rises); Fuel oil (Broad - based oscillation, short - term price weakness); Low - sulfur fuel oil (Night session rebounds, high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market stabilizes temporarily) [2][10][16] - Negative Ratings: Asphalt (Decline following oil prices); Methanol (Short - term weakness, medium - term oscillatory pattern); Urea (Oscillatory and under pressure); Styrene (Medium - term bearish); Soda ash (Spot market with little change); PVC (Trend under pressure); Container shipping index (European route) (May continue weak - side oscillation) [2][19][55] Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures. For each product, it combines fundamental data, market news, and trend strength to give investment suggestions. Market factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and external policy impacts are considered [2][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term oscillatory and strong - side, with high profits and increased production enthusiasm. There are some uncertainties in supply due to equipment issues, and demand is gradually recovering. Suggestions include positive spreads and a strategy of long PTA and short PX [4][8] - PTA: Driven by seasonal demand, it is in a strong - side oscillatory market. Supply is affected by new device launches and maintenance, and demand is improving. Hold positive spreads and consider long PTA and short PX [8] - MEG: 9 - 1 positive spreads are recommended. There is pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract. Port inventory is decreasing, but there is supply pressure in the future [9] 2. Rubber - Oscillatory operation. The EU's anti - dumping investigation affects exports, and there is a differentiation in domestic demand. The overall inventory may increase, and production may decline [10][13][14] 3. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamentals are neutral, following the macro - environment. The inventory of butadiene in ports has decreased, and the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene has increased. In the medium - term, it is in a range - bound oscillation [16][17][18] 4. Asphalt - Decline following oil prices. The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, and the volume of equipment maintenance has increased. The shipment volume in some regions has changed [20][33] 5. LLDPE - Range - bound oscillation. Demand is improving due to the approaching peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry. Supply pressure may be alleviated in September. Inventory is relatively low, so it may remain range - bound in the medium - term [35][36] 6. PP - Medium - term oscillatory market. Short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. However, supply pressure will increase in the future, and there is uncertainty in the cost [39][40] 7. Caustic Soda - Not advisable to chase short positions, and be bullish in the fourth quarter. The futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. Domestic demand is stable, and the key lies in the alumina production schedule [43][45] 8. Pulp - Oscillatory operation. The price of the pulp futures has declined, and the market for household paper is flat. The key is to monitor changes in raw material pulp prices and paper mill shipments [48][50][51] 9. Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. Futures prices have declined slightly, and spot prices are mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere is average, with mainly rigid - demand purchases [52][53] 10. Methanol - Short - term weakness, medium - term oscillatory pattern. Spot prices are declining, and port inventory has reached a new high. There is a risk of further price decline in ports and inland areas [55][58] 11. Urea - Oscillatory and under pressure. The inventory of urea enterprises has increased, and in the short - term, the price is weak. In the medium - term, there may be fluctuations due to macro - factors, but the long - term fundamentals are still the main contradiction [60][62][63] 12. Styrene - Medium - term bearish. Although the downstream has entered the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, the inventory is at a medium - high level, and the momentum for continuous replenishment is insufficient [64][65] 13. Soda Ash - Spot market with little change. The market is in a weak - side oscillation, with stable supply and lackluster demand. It is expected to remain weakly stable in the short - term [66][68] 14. LPG, Propylene - LPG: Crude oil cost rebounds. There are changes in futures prices, trading volume, and positions, and attention should be paid to CP paper prices and PDH device maintenance plans [71][77] - Propylene: Supply - demand tightens, spot price rises. The supply - demand relationship has led to an increase in the spot price [2][71] 15. PVC - Trend under pressure. The supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down [79] 16. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Broad - based oscillation, short - term price weakness. Futures prices have declined, and there are changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [82] - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Night session rebounds, high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market stabilizes temporarily. There are changes in futures prices and spreads [82] 17. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - May continue weak - side oscillation. Futures prices have declined, and shipping rates in European and US - West routes have decreased [84]