沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is rising, and there is an expectation of a shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season. The global total inventory of electrolytic copper is initially showing a decline, which may cause the price of Shanghai copper to fluctuate upward. It is recommended that investors go long on the main contract at low prices, pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 79,190, with no change from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 11,007 hands to 57,818 hands, and the open interest decreased by 491 hands to 174,997 hands. The inventory decreased by 1,630 tons to 21,287 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,545, down 40 from the previous day [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount: The factory - outside electrolytic copper spot premium remained at 65, while the North China electrolytic copper spot discount widened by 20 to - 90, and the East China electrolytic copper spot premium increased by 40 to 50 [2]. - Spread: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - one decreased by 50 to - 10, the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - one and Shanghai copper continuous - two decreased by 10 to 0, and the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - two and Shanghai copper continuous - three increased by 30 to 50 [2]. - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 27, 2025, was 9,755.5, down 81.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 156,100 to 0. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread decreased by 5.11 to - 89.93, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreased by 15.4 to - 169.57 [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract on August 27, 2025, was 4.5005, up 0.04 from the previous day. The total inventory increased by 1,267 to 273,767 [2]. Important Information - Aurubis AG and Troilus Gold signed a copper concentrate purchase memorandum, with Troilus Gold expected to supply about 75,000 tons of physical copper - gold concentrate to Aurubis AG annually [2]. - European high - quality scrap steel export restrictions, Sino - US tariff negotiation uncertainties, negative price differences between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the closure of the scrap copper import window have affected the scrap copper market. Some copper smelters have suspended production, while others are under construction or planned to be put into production [2]. Investment Strategy - The production capacity of domestic smelters' rough copper in August may decrease month - on - month, while the production and import volume of refined copper may increase. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in August may decrease, but the opening of the import window may increase the import volume of electrolytic copper. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area and social inventory decreased, while the inventory in the LME and COMEX increased [2]. - It is recommended that investors go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].