贵金属日评：特朗普政府持续向美联储库克施压，纽约联储主席每次会议都可能行动-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core View The Fed Chairman Powell signaled a potential September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure to replace Fed officials and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and fall less easily. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Data: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 781.16 yuan/g on August 28, 2025, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day and 6.04 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 135,834, and open interest was 166,596. The basis (spot - futures) was - 3.54 yuan [1]. - Important Information: The US Treasury Secretary said he never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the accusations. Trump's economic advisor pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit. New York Fed President Williams said every meeting is a substantial meeting for possible action [1]. Silver - Market Data: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 9,305 yuan/10g on August 28, 2025, down 49 yuan from the previous day. Trading volume was 268,955, and open interest was 280,655. The basis (spot - futures) was - 44 yuan [1]. - Important Information: Import tariffs pushed up US production - end inflation (PPI) and consumer - end inflation (core CPI) in July. Fed Chairman Powell mentioned a possible policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, increasing the expectation of a September rate cut [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - European Central Bank: It paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. Eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), and the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - Bank of England: It cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. Given the economic data, it may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - Bank of Japan: It kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly bond purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1]. Other Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 67.20 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.86 US dollars/barrel [1]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,800.35, the S&P 500 was 6,411.37, and the UK FTSE 100 was 9,255.50 [1].