房地产行业2025年9月投资策略：京沪政策边际放松，关注地产板块博弈机会

Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a marginal policy relaxation in Beijing and Shanghai, with the fundamentals continuing to bottom out. As of July 2025, the national commodity housing sales amounted to 49,566 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 1.0 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with a decline rate increase of 0.5 percentage points [1][11]. Market Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.3 percentage points this month. Since the last strategy report, the real estate sector has risen by 11.3%, ranking 16th among 31 industries. The dynamic PE for the sector in 2025 is projected to be 19.8 times, excluding loss-making companies [3][40]. Price Trends - The average selling price of new commodity housing in July 2025 was 9,613 yuan per square meter, down 2.6% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In 70 cities, the new residential sales prices decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed for nine consecutive months since November 2024 [2][15]. Policy Changes - On August 8, 2025, Beijing relaxed its purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families outside the Fifth Ring Road to buy without limits, and recognizing single adults as families. Similarly, on August 25, Shanghai implemented comparable measures, including adjustments to commercial loan rates, eliminating the interest rate floor for first-time homebuyers [3][39]. Investment Strategy - The current market conditions have not shown significant recovery, and the real estate fundamentals remain weak. However, with the recent marginal policy relaxations in Beijing and Shanghai, there is potential for further demand-side easing. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the real estate sector, recommending companies such as China Jinmao, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, and Greentown China [3][44].