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对二甲苯:供需紧平衡,正套,PTA:季节性需求旺季驱动,偏强震荡市,MEG:月差正套,单边高位震荡市
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-28 02:30

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for p-xylene (PX) are short-term bullish with a long/short spread strategy, for purified terephthalic acid (PTA) are long/short spread strategy and long PTA short PX, and for monoethylene glycol (MEG) are long/short spread strategy and short at high prices [7][8] Group 2: Core Views - The report believes that the supply and demand of p-xylene will be in a tight balance, PTA will be driven by the seasonal peak demand, and MEG will see a long/short spread in the month and a high-level shock in the single side [1] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures closed at 6940, 4824, 4481, 6572, and 479.7 respectively yesterday, with changes of -0.77%, -0.94%, -0.20%, -0.76%, and -3.31% [2] - The PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 month spreads closed at 86, -40, -46, -68, and -7.3 respectively yesterday, with changes of 6, 0, 4, 22, and 0 [2] Spot - PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent closed at 854.17, 4837, 4550, 600, and 67.44 respectively yesterday, with changes of -9.83, -28, -2, 7.5, and -0.79 [2] - The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread closed at 270.33, 248.5, 102.62, -88.83, and -6.01 respectively yesterday, with changes of 1.16, 13.1, 16.36, -47.62, and 0 [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics Summary - An issue occurred in a reforming unit of a factory in East China, and whether the reforming and supporting PX units will stop for maintenance needs further follow - up [2] - On August 27, the PX price dropped, and the PX - naphtha spread continued to narrow [3][5] - On August 27, the PTA futures fluctuated and declined, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average [5] - A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Shanxi is restarting, and a cracking unit in Singapore had an accident during maintenance [5] - On August 27, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber and polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [5][6] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish trend [7] Group 6: Views and Suggestions PX - Short - term shock is bullish, do not chase long on a single side, focus on the 11 - 1 long/short spread position, and long PTA short PX (November contract) [7] PTA - Do not chase long on a single side, hold the basis and month - spread long/short spread, and long PTA short PX (November contract) [7] MEG - 9 - 1 long/short spread, there is significant pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract, hedge at high prices [8]