宝城期货煤焦早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both the 2601 contract of coking coal and coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic for coking coal is that supply support is weakening and it is experiencing a high - level correction, while for coke, it is due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1] - Coking coal's fundamentals have no obvious changes. Supply is still suppressed by over - production checks and heavy rainfall in Shanxi, but demand is also under pressure due to environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills before the September 3rd parade. The "anti - involution" policy may bring new positive news, and the callback space of coking coal may be limited [5] - The coking coal market's divergence between long and short positions drives the high - level consolidation of coke futures. As the "anti - involution" theme develops, the futures market enters the verification stage, and the cost side may still form positive support in the medium and long term, making coke prone to rise and hard to fall [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", with the core logic of supply support weakening and high - level correction. The medium - term is "slightly strong" and the intraday is "slightly weak" [1] - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", with the core logic of the interweaving of long and short factors. The medium - term is "slightly strong" and the intraday is "slightly weak" [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Coking coal (JM): The intraday view is "slightly weak", the medium - term view is "slightly strong", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is the interweaving of long and short factors and limited callback space [5] - Coke (J): The intraday view is "slightly weak", the medium - term view is "slightly strong", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the coking coal market's divergence drives high - level consolidation, and the cost side may form positive support in the medium and long term [6]