烧碱：不宜追空，四季度偏多对待

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests not to chase short positions in caustic soda and take a bullish view in the fourth quarter, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent correction in caustic soda futures prices is due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports, but the warehouse receipt issue is a short - term impact. The supply - demand contradiction in the second half of this year mainly comes from the concentrated stocking before the alumina production [3] - Domestic demand remains stable. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve in the peak season, and alumina has high - level production with strong rigid demand. The later alumina stocking will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda, depending on the production start - up rhythm [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On August 28, 2025, the 01 contract futures price was 2699, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2688, and the basis was - 12 [1] 3.2 Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the overall price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable today, with a small number of enterprises raising prices. The current short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province is continuously low, and attention should be paid to the change in the delivery volume of major downstream industries [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The suppression factors for the rise of caustic soda are the 114 lots of warehouse receipts in the 09 contract as of August 26 (mainly from Zhejiang) and the weak export situation due to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. The 50% - 32% caustic soda price spread is weak, resulting in insufficient driving force for the price increase [3] - Domestic demand is stable. Non - aluminum demand will improve in the peak season, and alumina production is at a high level. There are expectations of 3.6 million tons of new production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year, and the alumina stocking will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda [3] 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral stance [5]