生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On August 27, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.6 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day; the slaughter price in Henan was 13.68 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan or 0.88%; the slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan or 0.81% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.85%; the 03 contract was 13235 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.38%; the 05 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.29%; the 07 contract was 14165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 09 contract was 13445 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan or 1.61%; the 11 contract was 13745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan or 78.33% from the previous day [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report shows data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On August 27, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 430 lots [2]. - The short - term decline in the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig contract (LH2511) added 1323 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 71,600 lots. The highest price was 13865 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13700 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13745 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen fluctuantly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the fact that farmers have reduced pig weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of the spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4].