新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-28）-20250828

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Declining [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Declining [4] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and Strengthening [4] - Silver: Volatile and Strengthening [4] - Pulp: Weakening [6] - Logs: Range - bound Volatility [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and Bearish [6][7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and Bearish [6] - Live Pigs: Volatile and Weakening [7] - Natural Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Hold for Observation [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Reverse Spread [9] - PR: Hold for Observation [9] - PF: Hold for Observation [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the black industry have different characteristics, with some products having limited fundamental contradictions and expected to be volatile, while others face supply - demand imbalances and are expected to be volatile and weakening [2] - The stock index futures/options market has overall declined, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and long positions in stock indices. The bond market has a weakening trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions in bonds lightly. The precious metals market is expected to be volatile and strengthening, mainly influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [2][4] - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to decline. The log market has limited supply pressure and is expected to be range - bound volatile [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to be volatile, mainly affected by factors such as export sales and production. The meal market is expected to be volatile and bearish, affected by factors such as production and imports [6] - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, is expected to be volatile and weakening due to factors such as supply increases and consumption restrictions [7] - The soft commodity market, represented by natural rubber, is expected to be volatile and strengthen in the short term due to factors such as supply tightening and inventory reduction [9] - The polyester market has different trends for different products, and short - term prices are mainly affected by factors such as cost and supply - demand [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is increasing, and the demand is affected little by the refutation of the domestic blast furnace production restriction expectation. The global iron ore shipment has a slight decline, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. The terminal demand is weak, but the blast furnace hot metal output is slightly rising, and steel mills have little motivation to actively reduce production. It is expected to be volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: There have been frequent accidents in the coal supply side, and the supply may fluctuate. The inventory of clean coal in coal mines has reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises have high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre - sold orders. The overall coking production restriction in Hebei and Shandong has a long time, and the short - term adjustment range is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: The production restriction policy of Tangshan steel mills is clear, but the production reduction is less than expected. The building material demand has a month - on - month decline, the external demand export has been overdrawn in advance, and the real estate investment continues to decline. The total demand is difficult to have an anti - seasonal performance, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The profits of the five major steel products are okay, the output has a slight increase, the apparent demand has recovered, and the steel mill inventory and social inventory are both increasing. During the military parade in mid - August, there is an expectation of supply contraction, but it is limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is intensifying. The spot demand for rebar is still weak in the traditional peak season, and the futures price is expected to find support after a significant adjustment [2] - Glass: The market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The glass production line has no water release or ignition, the operating rate is basically stable, the weekly output is stable month - on - month, and the manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. It is unlikely for glass factories to stop production during the military parade, and they can only choose cold repair. The market sentiment is highly volatile, and the middle and lower reaches of the glass market have room for restocking, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment cycle, and the glass demand is difficult to increase significantly. The short - term spot price is weak, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average on the disk [2] Financial Products - Stock Index Futures/Options: The previous trading day saw declines in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. The communication equipment and Internet sectors had capital inflows, while the daily chemical and education sectors had capital outflows. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and promote service exports. In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed for two consecutive months, with high - tech manufacturing leading the way. The market has overall declined, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and long positions in stock indices [2][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 3 basis points, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 379.9 billion yuan on August 27, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan on the same day. The bond market has a weakening trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - Precious Metals: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem may intensify, and the de - dollarization attribute of gold is prominent. The substitution effect of gold for bonds has weakened, and the geopolitical risk has marginally decreased, but the market's risk - aversion demand still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short - term disturbing factors. The silver market is also expected to be volatile and strengthen [4] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price is showing a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp prices weakening. The papermaking industry has a low profitability level, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is in the off - season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid - demand basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to decline [6] - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of log ports has increased, and the supply pressure is limited. The inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the spot market price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, and the delivery willingness is affected by the price range. The market is expected to be range - bound volatile [6] Oil and Fat and Meal - Oil and Fat: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The palm oil production in Malaysia has increased and inventory has accumulated in July, but the end - of - period inventory is lower than expected. The export demand for palm oil has been strong since August, mainly driven by Indian festival purchases. The Indonesian biodiesel policy has uncertain implementation time but provides long - term support for palm oil prices. The domestic soybean imports in August are high, and the oil mills have high operating rates. The soybean oil inventory has pressure, the palm oil inventory has rebounded, and the rapeseed oil inventory has continued to decline. The double - festival restocking demand has recovered, and the oil and fat market is expected to be volatile after a previous significant increase [6] - Meal: The USDA has significantly reduced the soybean planting area. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, output, and end - of - period inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. The US soybean production area is conducive to soybean growth, and the market expects a bumper harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed, but the weather in the next month is still a key factor. Before the US soybean exports improve substantially, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change. The domestic soybean imports from August to September are high, the oil mills have high operating rates, and the soybean meal inventory is high. After the downstream concentrated restocking, the purchasing sentiment has become cautious. The Sino - US negotiation expectation continues to disturb the market sentiment, and the meal market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs across the country has continued to decline. The temperature increase has slowed down the weight gain of pigs, and slaughter enterprises have increased the purchase of low - priced standard pigs, resulting in a decline in the overall purchase weight. It is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the settlement price of live pigs by key slaughter enterprises has shown a downward trend due to factors such as the accelerated slaughter by farmers and the impact of high - temperature weather on terminal consumption. The average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises has increased month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has fluctuated, and the weekly average price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile in the future [7] Soft Commodities - Natural Rubber: The weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas have less interference, and the raw material supply in Yunnan is tight, supporting high purchase prices. The glue production in Hainan is lower than expected, and the raw material purchase prices have increased due to the futures market. The cup - lump price in Thailand has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the geopolitical conflict in some areas has restricted the tapping progress. The raw material prices in Vietnam have also increased. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel radial tire enterprises has been affected by individual factory shutdowns and production cuts, while that of all - steel radial tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work by some maintenance enterprises. The inventory in Qingdao ports has decreased, with lower inbound rates and higher outbound rates. The natural rubber market still has an oversupply situation, but the gap has narrowed. With the expected increase in rainfall in the main producing areas at home and abroad in the next cycle, the expected tightening of raw material supply will drive up rubber prices, and the domestic spot inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain strong in the short term [9] - PX: The decline in US commercial crude oil inventory has exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in oil prices. The PTA load has weakened, while the PX load has fluctuated and recovered. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the pressure is not high, and the PXN spread is relatively stable. The PX price fluctuates with oil prices [9] - PTA: The oil price has large fluctuations, and the cost support is average despite the stable PXN spread. The PTA supply has decreased, and the downstream polyester factory load has started to rebound, improving the PTA supply - demand situation. The short - term price mainly fluctuates with the cost [9] - MEG: The port inventory decreased last week, and the subsequent arrival volume is lower than expected. The terminal demand has slightly improved, domestic production has increased, and the import volume has fluctuated. The supply pressure has increased, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The short - term cost fluctuates greatly, and the low inventory supports the MEG disk price [9] - PR: The supply of polyester bottle chips has become more abundant, weakening the supply support. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking at low prices, and the polyester bottle chip market is expected to decline weakly in a volatile manner [9] - PF: The polyester staple fiber has no positive factors in its own supply - demand, but the overnight increase in oil prices may be positive for the cost. The price of the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [9]