宝城期货原油早报-20250828

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to be dominated by bearish factors, with the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, despite an upward adjustment of global crude oil demand data for this year and next [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Time - based Viewpoints - Short - term: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - Medium - term: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be weakly volatile [1][5]. Driving Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report, stating that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, especially with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the fading of macro - bullish expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price closing down 1.01% to 481.5 yuan per barrel [5].