宏观金融数据日报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Market Data Review - Interest Rates: DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.99bp change, GC001 at 1.51 with a 5.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.55 with no change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.35 (-0.15bp), 1.60 (-0.25bp), and 1.76 (0.20bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.26 (-2.00bp) [3] - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 4058 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had 5803 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4745 billion yuan [3] - Stock Index Futures: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased by 1.49%, 1.73%, 1.46%, and 1.87% respectively. Their corresponding futures contracts IF, IH, IC, and IM also decreased. The trading volume and open interest of these futures contracts increased, with IC's trading volume rising by 47.8% and open interest by 10.6% [5] - Stock Market: The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 31656 billion yuan. Shipbuilding, education, real estate, chemical raw materials, textile and clothing, and cement building materials led the decline, while only small metals and power equipment rose [6] 2. Market Outlook and Strategy - Central Bank Open - Market Operations: This week, 20770 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 3000 billion yuan of MLF on Tuesday, 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month and 4000 billion yuan of 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchases on Friday [4] - Stock Market Analysis: After a continuous strong and heavy - volume rise, the stock market experienced a pull - back. Rumors of window guidance from the CSRC were spread to cool the market. The PE ratios of the four major stock indexes are in the top 70% of historical levels, but equity assets still have an advantage over risk - free rates. The risk - premium rate of the CSI 300 is at a relatively high level, indicating certain allocation value. As the key macro - event nodes in September approach, the stock index is expected to be more volatile, and it is recommended to reduce positions moderately and adjust the layout to a long - dominated strategy [6] 3. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.77%, 1.46%, 1.69%, and 1.79% respectively [7] - IH: The premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 0.99%, 0.04%, - 0.51%, and - 0.45% respectively [7] - IC: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 5.73%, 7.17%, 7.72%, and 7.48% respectively [7] - IM: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 10.66%, 9.90%, 9.42%, and 9.07% respectively [7]