黑色金属数据日报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a downward trend with no new driving forces, and the price center of gravity has shifted downwards. The market is in a daily - level correction trend without signs of stabilization. The spread between near - and far - month contracts has slightly widened, but it is not considered sustainable. The overall industrial data shows little change, with weak upward price drivers and lackluster terminal demand. The market risk preference is expected to marginally improve, and the steel futures price valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. - The double - silicon market has followed the weakening of the black sector. Although the anti - involution policy provides long - term support, the industry still has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. The profit of alloy plants has been repaired, and the supply has continued to increase [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is in a weak state. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. The coking coal auction has a high non - successful bid rate, and the market is mainly trading based on the verification of peak - season actual demand and the performance of steel inventories [5]. - The iron ore market has seen a decline in commodity sentiment. Although the apparent demand for major steel products has rebounded, the iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress price increases. The impact of future policies on the steel sector may have a greater influence on iron ore price fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Closing Prices and Changes: On August 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2601, HC2601, etc. showed varying degrees of decline. For example, RB2601 closed at 3172 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan (- 1.06%); the closing prices of near - month contracts also declined, with RB2510 closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.48%) [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The spreads between near - and far - month contracts, such as the spread between RB2510 and RB2601, were - 61 yuan on August 27, with a change of - 13 yuan. The spread/ratio/ profit indicators like the coil - to - screw spread, screw - to - ore ratio, etc., also had corresponding changes [1]. Steel Products - Market Trend: The market continued to decline slightly on Wednesday, in a daily - level correction trend without signs of stabilization. The spread between near - and far - month contracts widened slightly, but it is not considered sustainable. The industrial data showed little change, with weak upward price drivers and lackluster terminal demand. The market risk preference is expected to marginally improve, and the steel futures price valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. - Investment Strategy: Wait for the market to stabilize for unilateral trading, and stop losses and wait and see after short - term long positions. For spot - futures trading, positive spreads can be taken profit or rolled over according to the basis changes [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Market Trend: The double - silicon market has followed the weakening of the black sector. The anti - involution policy provides long - term support, but the industry still has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. The profit of alloy plants has been repaired, and the supply has continued to increase [4]. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Trend: The coking coal auction has a high non - successful bid rate, and the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. The market is mainly trading based on the verification of peak - season actual demand and the performance of steel inventories [5]. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to whether the impact of the mine accident will spread, and industrial customers can pay attention to hedging opportunities after the price rises [7]. Iron Ore - Market Trend: The short - term commodity price has fallen after rising, and the upward momentum of the sector is insufficient. The iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress price increases. The impact of future policies on the steel sector may have a greater influence on iron ore price fluctuations [6]. - Investment Strategy: Not clearly mentioned in the text.