蛋白数据日报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the U.S. soybean yield per acre to a record - high of 53.6 bushels/acre but cut the 2025/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance for new - crop U.S. soybeans. The Pro Farmer survey estimated a lower yield per acre at 63 bushels/acre, and the good - excellent rate remained high at 68%, with a possible yield reduction due to less rainfall and lower temperatures in the next two weeks [5]. - The import volume of soybeans to China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in August and September, and soybean meal is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow. Under Sino - U.S. trade policies, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month [5][6]. - In terms of demand, the high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy guidance controls pig inventory and weight, which may affect future pig supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [6]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. - Overall, the expectation of Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 101 is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of soybean meal's main contract in different regions on August 27: Dalian was 95 with a change of 26, Tianjin was 15 with a change of 16, etc. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions also varied, such as - 5 in Zhangjiagang with a change of 26 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375 with a change of 17, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 420 with a change of - 19 [5]. 3.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - Supply: The USDA report adjusted the 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending inventory from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels. The expected import volume of soybeans to China in August and September is over 10 million tons [5]. - Demand: High inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy controls on pig inventory and weight may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, but downstream transactions are cautious this week [6]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed but is still in the cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is affected by negative factors such as Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With import cost support, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6].