市场交投相对清淡，铜价维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price cannot continue to rebound. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. However, due to the rising market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price still shows a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 27, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 79,190 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,820 yuan/ton and closed at 78,850 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,420 - 79,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 - 260 yuan/ton over the current 2509 contract, and an average premium of 170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market trading sentiment was weak, and the spot premium was expected to remain in a stalemate [2] Important Information Summary - Overseas Macro: New York Fed President Williams said it was appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. US Treasury Secretary Besent said there were 11 "very strong" candidates for Fed Chair, and the selection would be announced this fall. The Trump administration was studying plans to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [3] - Mine End: First Quantum Minerals Ltd. shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in Zambian copper mines due to a $1 billion gold deal that eased balance - sheet pressure [3] - Smelting and Import: PT Freeport Indonesia expected to complete the maintenance of its joint - venture smelter in East Java in early September. The Gresik smelter, a joint venture with Mitsubishi Materials, had been under maintenance for a month and consumed about 40% of the copper concentrate output from the Grasberg mine, with an annual cathode copper production capacity of 342,000 tons [4] - Consumption: In July, China's copper strip processing industry continued to decline. The consumption demand at the terminal decreased, orders shrank, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. Among 29 sample enterprises, the total copper strip output was 141,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The average capacity utilization rate was 83.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 975 tons to 156,100 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,630 tons to 21,287 tons. On August 27, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,000 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] - Arbitrage: Put on hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Data Table The report provides data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio from August 21, 2025, to August 28, 2025, covering multiple aspects such as SMM 1 copper, premium copper, flat - water copper, and more [25][26][27]