化工日报：到港偏少，EG主港库存下降至低位-20250828

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views - On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol (EG) price fluctuated and adjusted, with general market discussions. The morning session saw a brief upward movement in the futures due to unexpected news from a Singaporean plant. The afternoon session witnessed a decline in the EG futures as the commodity market weakened, but the basis remained strong [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$46/ton (up $1/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -¥19/ton (up ¥2/ton from the previous period) [1]. - According to CCF's data on Mondays and Longzhong's data on Thursdays, MEG inventory at the East China main ports decreased. Last week, the actual arrivals at the ports were low, leading to inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are still low, and inventory reduction may continue [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic EG supply has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas supply is expected to increase after August. Demand is showing signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in mid - September [2]. - The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with no significant supply - demand contradictions [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was ¥4,481/ton (down ¥9/ton, or -0.20% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was ¥4,550/ton (down ¥2/ton, or -0.04% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was ¥61/ton (up ¥10/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$46/ton (up $1/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -¥19/ton (up ¥2/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the report, only a chart of the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR was mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The demand is showing signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales inventory preparation. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in mid - September [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF, MEG inventory at the East China main ports was 500,000 tons (down 47,000 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong, it was 498,000 tons (down 37,000 tons from the previous period). Last week, the actual arrivals at the ports were 61,000 tons, and this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are 54,000 tons, still low [2].