农产品日报：养殖端持续出栏，猪价震荡调整-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig industry, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease in the future, and the consumption - side improvement is anticipated but with limited impact. Price support mainly relies on the short - term supply gap created by the increase in secondary fattening. The ongoing policy - based procurement has little impact on the market due to the small net procurement volume. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged in the short and long term, though short - term demand boosts may have some influence [2] - For the egg industry, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, with demand improving due to food companies' stocking, tourism and catering consumption, and school opening needs. However, the continuous increase in the number of laying hens in production and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to an oversupply situation, suppressing egg prices. The festival demand boost is weak, and the short - term pattern is difficult to change [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 13,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton (- 0.83%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.56 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.43 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg. The corresponding spot basis changed as well [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on August 27: The "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" rose 0.22 points, the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.26 points. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.4% to 19.92 yuan/kg, beef increased by 0.2% to 65.05 yuan/kg, mutton increased by 0.5% to 59.97 yuan/kg, eggs increased by 1.1% to 7.69 yuan/kg, and white - striped chickens remained unchanged at 17.67 yuan/kg [1] Market Analysis - Supply - side pressure is expected to ease, and consumption - side improvement is expected but limited. Price support depends on secondary fattening. Policy - based procurement has little impact, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains stable in the short and long term, with short - term demand boosts having some influence [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 2,975 yuan/500 kg, down 38 yuan (- 1.26%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.71 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan. The corresponding spot basis also changed [3] - On August 27, the national production - link inventory was 0.82 days, down 0.05 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days, unchanged [3] Market Analysis - Entering the pre - festival stocking period, demand has improved, but the continuous increase in laying hens in production and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to an oversupply situation, suppressing prices. The festival demand boost is weak, and the short - term pattern is hard to change [4][5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]