甲醇日报：到港集中，港口累库压力进一步加大-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The port is experiencing concentrated arrivals, increasing the pressure on port inventory accumulation. The pattern of a weak port and a strong inland region is maintained, and the 01 contract still contains the expectation of seasonal winter maintenance in Iran, maintaining a relatively high futures premium. Inland coal - fired methanol centralized maintenance period has passed, with the start - up rate increasing in early September and factory inventories starting to bottom out and rise. Downstream demand remains relatively weak [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][32][33] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated) are presented in figures [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][44][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [48][54][56] Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 445 yuan/ton (+0), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 698 yuan/ton (-18). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2063 yuan/ton (-18), with a basis of 291 yuan/ton (+6); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2080 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2323 yuan/ton (-23), with a basis of 151 yuan/ton (+1); Henan is 2230 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 58 yuan/ton (+23); Hebei is 2265 yuan/ton (+25), with a basis of 153 yuan/ton (+48). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 333393 tons (+22600), and the northwest factory inventory is 214500 tons (+16500). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 216985 tons (+9615), and the northwest factory pending orders are 113300 tons (+8100) [1] Port Market - Taicang methanol is 2250 yuan/ton (-22), with a basis of - 122 yuan/ton (+1), CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (-4), and the East China import price difference is - 20 yuan/ton (+10). Changzhou methanol is 2445 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2265 yuan/ton (-20), with a basis of - 107 yuan/ton (+3). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1299250 tons (+223290), Jiangsu port inventory is 671500 tons (+124000), Zhejiang port inventory is 217500 tons (+58800), and Guangdong port inventory is 249000 tons (+31500). The downstream MTO start - up rate is 84.59% (+1.46%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The price difference of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 48 yuan/ton (+18), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 363 yuan/ton (-5), Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 323 yuan/ton (+1); Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 28 yuan/ton (-1); Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 165 yuan/ton (+2); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 155 yuan/ton (-22) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell for hedging at high prices. - Inter - period: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3]