美联储人事博弈，国内宏观利好加速兑现

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non - manufacturing sector stayed in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected. Financial data showed that money supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data faced obvious pressure [2]. - Powell's attitude turned dovish, paving the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, making the path of rising overseas inflation smoother. Tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down commodities highly affected by external demand [3]. - For commodities, the black and new - energy metal sectors in China are most sensitive to the supply - side. Energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unrelieved. The "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worth attention, and agricultural products are driven by short - term tariffs and inflation expectations [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, China's economic data showed mixed performance. The official manufacturing PMI declined, exports increased due to low - base and "rush - to - export" effects, financial data had imbalances, and investment data was under pressure. The government emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand service consumption, and increase effective investment. On August 27, A - shares tumbled, treasury bond futures rebounded, and domestic commodity futures mostly closed down. In the US, July's non - farm payrolls were below expectations, but August's PMI improved, and the "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [2]. Fed and Tariff Situation - The US government issued administrative orders on tariffs, including setting "reciprocal tariff" rates and expanding the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs. Trump proposed high - rate tariffs on semiconductors and rare - earth magnets and export restrictions on foreign digital taxes. The EU planned to cancel US industrial product tariffs to exchange for lower US auto tariffs. India faced US tariff hikes, and the US - South Korea meeting on trade was inconclusive [3]. - Powell's dovish speech at the global central bank meeting indicated a possible policy adjustment. Trump tried to dismiss Fed理事 Lisa Cook, but Cook responded that he had no right to do so. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing for Trump's nominee Miran, and the US Treasury Secretary said the choice of Fed Chairman will be known in autumn [3]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are supply - side sensitive. Overseas, energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from inflation expectations. The black sector is affected by demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector has supply constraints. The "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry and some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by short - term factors but need fundamental support [4]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate industrial products on dips [5]. Other News - The Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policies to promote consumption. The market on August 27 showed a decline, with most stocks falling and trading volume exceeding 3 trillion. The euro - dollar exchange rate had little short - term fluctuation, and the EU planned to cut US tariffs. The US imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods, affecting Indian exports. New York Fed President Williams considered rate cuts appropriate, and the US Treasury Secretary was involved in selecting the Fed Chairman and related banking transactions [7].