Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the influence of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have cut prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and transactions have improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although some companies are expected to conduct maintenance and the output may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,737 yuan/ton (+0). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (+0), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%). Some companies such as Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to conduct maintenance, and the output may decline slightly. But with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of urea was 170 yuan/ton (+0). As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,292 yuan/ton (+5). India's NFL issued a urea import tender, and the tender will close on September 2. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84% (-2.64%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60% (-3.22%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (+0.00) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 501,000 tons (+37,000 tons) [1]
尿素日报：需求缓慢推进，尿素库存上升-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-28 05:22