黑色建材日报：市场情绪转弱，钢价底部震荡-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [9] 2. Core Views - Market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices are oscillating at the bottom. The fundamentals of building materials in the off - season are poor, while the consumption of plates shows good resilience. The overall supply - demand of steel has not improved significantly, and attention should be paid to subsequent supply - demand performance, EAF losses, and real - estate policies [1]. - The market is cautiously observing, and iron ore prices have declined slightly. Supply has increased month - on - month, and demand will decline due to the parade. Attention should be paid to the impact of sea - floating volume on arrivals, as well as iron ore shipments and hot metal changes [3]. - Short - term demand is limited, and coking coal and coke are operating weakly. Affected by the parade, short - term demand is mainly for rigid needs. Attention should be paid to the post - parade market supply recovery progress and material de - stocking rhythm [5][6]. - The market is highly watchful, and the pattern of coal mine price cuts remains unchanged. With the approaching parade, non - power industry production is restricted, and power coal demand has declined from its peak. In the long - term, the pattern of loose coal supply remains unchanged [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3349 yuan/ton. Spot steel trading was generally weak, with rebar performing better than hot - rolled coil. Yesterday's steel trading volume was 11.11 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The fundamentals of building materials in the off - season are poor, and steel prices are under pressure during the contract roll - over. The consumption of plates shows good resilience, but the off - season pattern remains unchanged. Currently, there is no macro - market disturbance, and the raw material replenishment for parade - related production restrictions has been completed. Downstream demand has a greater impact [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Other strategies: None [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated and declined. The main 2601 contract closed at 775.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%. The price of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Yesterday, the total iron ore trading volume at major ports across the country was 91.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.16%; the total trading volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 160.0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: With the arrival of previously high sea - floating iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month. Demand remains at a high level in the short - term but will decline due to the parade. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main coking coal and coke contracts continued the weakly oscillating pattern of the previous trading day. The coking coal 2601 contract decreased by 3.87%, and the coke 2601 contract decreased by 2.82%. The price of imported coal fluctuated weakly, and the trading atmosphere was cold [5]. - Logic and Views: Affected by the decline in market sentiment, the black commodity sector is in a weakly oscillating pattern. For coking coal, as the delivery month approaches, the open interest has decreased significantly, and there is short - term liquidity pressure. For coke, some enterprises are implementing production restrictions due to environmental protection requirements, and demand is further suppressed by the parade [6]. - Strategy: Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices have declined slightly. Frequent rainfall has restricted production and sales, and downstream traders have slowed down their purchases. At ports, the market is cold, and coal prices are continuously declining. Ports are still in the de - stocking cycle. Imported coal is operating weakly and stably [8]. - Demand and Logic: With the approaching parade, non - power industries are implementing production restrictions, and power coal demand has declined from its peak. In the long - term, the pattern of loose coal supply remains unchanged [8]. - Strategy: None [9]