新能源及有色金属日报：下游刚需备货，铅价维持震荡-20250828

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of lead remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations support the non - ferrous metals sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary of Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 38.74 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On August 27, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 49,426 lots, an increase of 4,245 lots from the previous day. The positions were 49,915 lots, a decrease of 931 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,960 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [1] Inventory - On August 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 27, the LME lead inventory was 267,475 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Summary of Sales Strategies - The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [3]