新能源及有色金属日报：宏观刺激叠加外盘拉动，沪镍价格反弹-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, with an unchanged oversupply pattern and approaching lower costs, being more affected by macro - sentiment. Stainless steel prices may stop falling and rebound in the short term, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, and the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 7 consecutive times, also influenced by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,620 yuan/ton and closed at 121,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 196,852 lots, and the open interest was 98,903 lots, a daily change of - 10,364. Overnight, LME nickel prices rose 2.04% to $15,280/ton. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly between 120,620 - 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 121,690 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan/ton or 1.11%. During the day session, it continued to rise, reaching a high of 122,690 yuan/ton, a two - week high. However, the open interest decreased by about 9.5% [1]. - Nickel Ore: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 had transactions. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mine quotations were firm, and the impact of rainfall on shipping efficiency was small. Downstream nickel - iron had new transactions, but iron plants were still cautious and price - pressing in nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to fall by $0.2 - 0.3, and the current mainstream premium remained at + 24, with the September (Phase 1) premium likely to remain unchanged [2]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,500 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was a bit light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,025 (- 61.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (72) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,526 lots, and the open interest was 128,，304 lots, a daily change of - 5,355. Overnight, boosted by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weakening dollar, the main contract quickly rose to 12,915 yuan/ton after opening at 12,850 yuan/ton, then fluctuated narrowly around 12,870. During the day session, it was driven up slightly by Shanghai nickel prices but then fell back due to the weak spot market, closing at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.12% [3]. - Spot: The trading heat in the spot market rebounded slightly as the futures market stabilized. Traders' quotations were still cautious as downstream acceptance of high prices was low despite approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,125 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 480 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.00 yuan/nickel point to 940.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term stainless steel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].