新能源及有色金属日报：仓单快速增加，现货供应充足-20250828

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Short allocation option among non-ferrous varieties [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Zinc ingot spot market has sufficient arrivals, domestic warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly, zinc prices fluctuate with the general trend of non-ferrous metals, downstream purchasing power is poor, and spot discounts show a slight expanding trend. The import TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$4.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -10 yuan/ton to 22,270 yuan/ton, with a premium of -45 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is unchanged at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a premium of -70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -10 yuan/ton to 22,250 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On August 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,993 lots, and the open interest was 107,827 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 60,025 tons, a change of -5,500 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Zinc ingot spot market has sufficient arrivals, domestic warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly. The import TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, so the smelting enthusiasm remains [5] - Consumption: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Short allocation option among non-ferrous varieties [6]