航运日报：运价中枢持续下修，关注其他船司运价调整情况-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, with the 10 - month contract mainly for short - allocation as the freight rate center moves down further. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [5][7][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210, and in week 37 it was 1140/1900 (currently up to 1155/1930). Many other shipping companies also have their respective price quotes for September [1][2][3] - Geopolitical Situation: Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed regret over the incident at the Nasser Hospital in Gaza, and Trump said dealing with Netanyahu was tricky and expected a good and clear outcome in the next 2 - 3 weeks [3] - Capacity: The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September was 313,900 TEU, and in October it was 282,100 TEU. There were three blank sailings in September, and HPL announced two additional vessels for October [4] - Contract Settlement Prices: The final settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4][5] 2. Futures Prices - As of August 26, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,902 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 25,424 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided [8] 3. Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes were 1668.00 dollars/TEU, 1644.00 dollars/FEU, and 2613.00 dollars/FEU respectively. On August 18, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe was 1990.20 points, and for Shanghai - US West was 1041.38 points [8] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 57 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [9] 5. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract shows a weak and volatile trend - Arbitrage: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies [9]