

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in operating net profit margin despite pressure on liquid milk demand [5] - The company is expected to achieve a substantial recovery in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected growth rates of 4113% in 2025, 18% in 2026, and 9% in 2027 [5][7] - Mengniu Dairy is positioned as a leading player in the domestic dairy industry, with core competencies in milk sourcing, product offerings, and distribution channels [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Mengniu Dairy are as follows: - 2023: 98,624 million RMB - 2024: 88,675 million RMB - 2025E: 82,468 million RMB - 2026E: 86,041 million RMB - 2027E: 89,636 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be 6.51% in 2023, -10.09% in 2024, -7.00% in 2025, 4.33% in 2026, and 4.18% in 2027 [3][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 4,809 million RMB - 2024: 105 million RMB - 2025E: 4,424 million RMB - 2026E: 5,225 million RMB - 2027E: 5,716 million RMB - The net profit growth rates are projected at -9.31% in 2023, -97.83% in 2024, 4113.33% in 2025, 18.11% in 2026, and 9.40% in 2027 [3][7] Business Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 41.57 billion RMB, with liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, and cheese revenues at 32.19 billion, 1.68 billion, 3.88 billion, and 2.37 billion RMB respectively [5] - The liquid milk business faced challenges due to weak demand, leading to a decline in both volume and price, although fresh milk saw over 20% growth [5] - The gross profit margin improved to 41.7%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in milk prices [5]