新能源及有色金属日报：消息面扰动较多，多晶硅盘面大幅回落-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and the futures market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of commodities such as coking coal. The polysilicon futures market is influenced by both weak reality and anti - involution policy expectations, with the current policy situation unclear and the market expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [1][7] - For industrial silicon, the spot price has slightly declined, and the market is in a state where the consumption side is in a stalemate of low - price transactions, and the supply side inventory has decreased slightly. For polysilicon, the spot price is stable, but the supply has increased in July - August, and the consumption side's production arrangement is average, resulting in a pattern of inventory accumulation [1][2][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures Market: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2511 of industrial silicon futures opened at 8525 yuan/ton and closed at 8525 yuan/ton, a change of - 135 yuan/ton (- 1.56%) compared with the previous day's settlement. The closing position of the main contract was 275,558 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,709 lots, a decrease of 113 lots compared with the previous day [1] - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon has slightly decreased. The prices of some silicon products in various regions have declined, and the social inventory has decreased by 0.2 tons to 543,000 tons compared with last week [1] - Consumption Side: The price of organic silicon DMC is 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of main organic silicon products is close to the enterprise cost line, and the market is in a stalemate of low - price transactions, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [2] Polysilicon - Futures Market: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures opened at 50,915 yuan/ton and closed at 48,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.89%. The position of the main contract reached 154,537 lots, and the trading volume was 502,410 lots [4] - Supply and Demand: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The supply increased significantly from July to August, and the inventory is in an accumulating pattern. The production arrangement of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components on the consumption side is average. There is a possibility of industry self - disciplined production reduction in September, which may relieve the supply pressure to some extent [7] - Terminal Consumption: After the previous rush to install, the domestic installation performance from June to July was average. In July, the newly - added photovoltaic installation in the country was 11.64GW, a year - on - year decrease of 44.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 18.9% [7] Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Other Strategies: No suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Other Strategies: No suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [9]