航运衍生品数据日报-20250828

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market is in a weak oscillation. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased due to Powell's speech, and Trump's threat to impose tariffs on imported furniture has led to pre - shipment rush. The short - term market still has room to decline [5]. - The current shipping market demand is continuously weak. The spot freight rate is under obvious pressure due to more overtime ships in late August. The market has turned to buyer - dominated, and there is no clear price - increase plan from shipping companies for now [6]. - The downward adjustment of OCEAN's freight rate in September is accelerating, which may put pressure on NSK to cut prices. The price of the 12 - contract is likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [7]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Shipping Market Data - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1415, down 3.07% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1175, down 1.55%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe all decreased, with declines ranging from 3.90% to 8.72% [4]. - For shipping derivatives, the prices of contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc. mostly declined, with the largest decline of 2.45%. The open interest of some contracts increased, and the month - spreads also changed slightly [4]. Market Influencing Factors - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium made the market expect interest rate cuts, and Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imported furniture led to pre - shipment rush [5]. - The increase in overtime ships in late August put pressure on spot freight rates. The competition for prices intensified, and shipping companies took measures such as adjusting surcharges and relaxing long - term contract booking restrictions to stimulate shipments [6]. - The planned suspension of voyages on the Trans - Pacific route before China's "Golden Week" in 2025 may increase temporarily in the coming weeks, and the current announced capacity reduction is lower than the historical benchmark [4]. - The low empty - sail rate on European routes in September and the sufficient supply of shipping capacity in the near future indicate no obvious signal of supply tightening in the short term. The congestion at European ports and the decrease in the rate of postponed sailings on the Asia - Europe route may affect subsequent cabin allocation and arrival cycles [6]. Shipping Company Strategies - Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) and Maersk (MSK) have announced their quotes for early September, maintaining the August level. Maersk will lower the peak - season surcharge to $50/100 in September and adjust the overweight surcharge policy [6]. - Some shipping companies are relaxing the restrictions on low - price long - term contract bookings to boost shipment volume [6].