2025年秋季宏观经济展望：“新秩序”的萌芽

Economic Overview - The economic growth target for 2023 is around 5%, with the first half achieving a growth rate of 5.3%, the best performance in four years[116] - The GDP growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half, with Q3 projected at 4.8-5% and Q4 at 4.5-4.7%[119] Market Signals - Since 2023, there has been a divergence between economic growth and stock/bond market trends, with economic indicators losing elasticity[12] - The nominal GDP growth rate is stable at over 5%, while the price level has turned positive, indicating a shift in economic dynamics[30] Structural Changes - The economy is transitioning from traditional sectors to new technologies, with significant increases in production capacity for new tech products[35] - The income structure of urban residents has shown a decline in property and transfer income, with property income dropping by 7.8%[75] Policy Implications - The government is focusing on enhancing nominal GDP growth while balancing inflation and exchange rates[31] - Structural reforms are necessary to address supply-demand imbalances and improve income distribution, particularly through urbanization and income redistribution strategies[79] Investment Outlook - The stock market is expected to enter a new equilibrium, with emerging industries gaining more influence on index performance[190] - The bond market is likely to experience fluctuations, with a potential upward shift in the 10-year yield to 1.70-1.75%[184]