有色商品日报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, and domestic copper opened lower and fluctuated narrowly with the domestic spot import window continuously open. Concerns about the Fed's independence may increase expectations of monetary policy easing. Seasonal off - peak is ending, downstream orders may improve, and scrap copper substitution is favorable. There is a possibility of inventory replenishment in China, which may drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's resumption of production increases, with accumulating warehouse receipts and over - supply expectations. Cost support is strengthening, so it is in a weak but limited - decline pattern. The inflow of aluminum ingots in main sales areas in China is decreasing, and downstream stocking is increasing. Whether it is a cyclical inflection point needs verification [2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Overall, the fundamentals have little change, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 75 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME and COMEX copper changed. The total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the inventory of LME decreased by 4075 tons, while the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 74 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 tons. The active contract import loss decreased [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 72 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt decreased by 61 tons. The social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. - Zinc: The主力结算 price increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory decreased by 5500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74 tons. The active contract import loss changed [5]. - Tin: The主力结算 price increased by 0.8%. The LME inventory increased by 145 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 301 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and his team has won many awards [48]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [48]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and providing timely market information [49].