Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The corn market is in a state of shock. The spot price is weak, the supply is diverse, the downstream procurement intention is weak, and the new - grain listing pressure affects the futures price. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the 11 - month contract at the 2150 integer mark [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is volatile. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is under selling pressure. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats market is in a state of shock. Weak demand currently restricts the upward movement, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - Eggs: The egg market is in a state of shock. The futures price continues to decline, while the spot price rebounds. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - Hogs: The hog market is in a state of shock. The futures price is weakly volatile, and the spot price varies in different regions. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: On Wednesday, the main 2511 contract of corn increased in positions and rose slightly. The spot price is weak, with prices in Northeast China moving closer to new - grain prices and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn in Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the enterprise prices have been slightly adjusted downwards. The supply in the market is diverse, and the downstream procurement intention is weak. The futures price is affected by the new - grain listing pressure, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Attention should be paid to the 2150 integer mark of the 11 - month contract [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. The domestic soybean meal increased in positions and declined, with large selling pressure. The state - reserve will sell 16.4 tons of soybeans on the 29th, and the expectation of Sino - US talks has alleviated the market's concerns about long - term supply, putting pressure on the Dalian soybean meal. The futures decline exceeds the spot decline, and the basis strengthens. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - Oils and Fats: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose last week, but weak demand limited the increase. The import of palm oil in the EU is lower than the same period last year, reflecting weak demand. The Canadian rapeseed price has declined, and the market is waiting for the crop report. Domestic vegetable oils have declined, affected by the general decline of commodities and the weakness of the surrounding market. The demand is currently weak, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The market is in a long - term upward trend. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to decline. The main 2510 contract closed down 1.26%, and the near - month 2509 contract fluctuated at a low level, closing down 0.69%. The spot price has rebounded. Terminal markets purchase as they sell, and the procurement before the start of school is relatively active. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but considering the supply - side pressure, the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - Hogs: On Wednesday, the hog futures were weakly volatile. The main 2511 contract closed down 0.83%. The spot price varies in different regions. In the north, the terminal demand has slightly increased, and the pig price has risen slightly in some areas; in the south, large - scale farms have increased their sales, and the pig price has generally declined. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has sent 8 working groups to 18 provinces for centralized research and guidance on autumn grain production and disaster prevention and mitigation, covering four aspects: field management, disaster prevention and mitigation, yield improvement, and "one - spray multi - promotion" [3]. - According to SGS data, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 is 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase compared to the same period last month [3]. - Analysts expect Australia's wheat production to reach 32 - 35 million tons, and the estimate may be further raised. This will increase the global wheat supply [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean meal, oils and fats, eggs, and hogs, but no specific spread or basis data analysis is provided [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][24]. Introduction of the Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her contact information is provided [26]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].
光大期货农产品日报-20250828
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-28 06:06