光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250828

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Urea's investment rating is a firm and volatile trend [1] - Soda ash's investment rating is a weak and volatile trend [1] - Glass's investment rating is a volatile trend [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices rose rapidly at noon yesterday and then fluctuated and declined. The supply level has decreased, and the demand side's follow - up sentiment has partially improved, but the regional performance is still differentiated. The inventory has increased, and the fundamentals have not reversed. Future supply reduction, environmental protection restrictions, and the Indian tender results may bring new directions [1] - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The industry's operating rate and production have decreased, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the short - term sentiment is weak. The medium - to - long - term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged [1] - Glass futures prices fluctuated narrowly. There are signs of production line ignition and resumption, but the supply has not increased. The demand side sentiment has slightly improved, and the sales - to - production ratio has increased. The supply - demand contradiction is still not optimistic, and the industry's confidence in the future is insufficient [1] Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On August 27, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 6473, an increase of 1350 from the previous trading day, with 183 valid forecasts [4] - On August 27, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.17 million tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 2.33 million tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 80.75%, a 5.66 - percentage - point increase from 75.09% in the same period last year [4] - On August 27, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions remained unchanged. For example, Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and Henan was 1710 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 27, the urea enterprise inventory was 108.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.19 million tons or 6.05% [5] Soda Ash and Glass - On August 27, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 6235, a decrease of 2943 from the previous trading day, with 1911 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7] - On August 27, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were reported. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1350 yuan/ton [7] - On August 27, the soda ash industry's operating rate was 80.21%, down from 81.33% the previous working day [8] - On August 27, the average price of the float glass market was 1151 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 15.96 million tons, also unchanged [8] Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price of the urea and soda ash main contracts, the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the urea and soda ash main contracts, the price spread between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trend charts of urea and soda ash, and the price spread between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [9][13][14][15][17][18] Group 5: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [21] - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has also won many honors [21] - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]